Intelligence Findings
Finding 01
CDAO Tradewind is the fastest path to DoD AI contract revenue
94 awards issued since inception. Median time from white paper to contract: 67 days. 78% of awards went to firms with fewer than 500 FTEs. Currently open capability areas: predictive maintenance, NLP for unstructured intelligence reporting, and computer vision for logistics asset tracking. No traditional proposal required. White paper + pitch format.
Sources: CDAO.mil, FPDS-NG FY2023-FY2025 award data, DoD OTA Consortium Directory
Finding 02
JAIC successor program re-competes expose $1.2B through Q3 FY2026
Three major programs entering re-compete windows: AMPS (AI-enabled manpower planning), Advana (enterprise data/analytics platform), and Maven Smart System (ISR processing). All three have prior GAO protest history, meaning incumbents are not guaranteed retention. Maven scoping documents reference AI ethics and bias audit capabilities as a desired but unmet need. This is an uncontested differentiator gap.
Sources: SAM.gov forecast and active notices, GAO protest decisions B-421xxx series, DoD IG AI accountability report Jan 2026
Finding 03 · Watch This
FedRAMP High is table stakes, not a discriminator
86% of the last 22 DoD AI contract awards required FedRAMP High as a pass/fail gate, up from 61% in FY2023. It no longer differentiates. The emerging discriminator stack: NIST AI Risk Management Framework alignment + DoD AI Ethical Principles certification + TREx (Technical Reference Exchange) capability statements. Only 12% of active DoD AI contractors currently have TREx-aligned capability statements on file.
Sources: GSA FedRAMP marketplace analytics, DoD CIO AI Acquisition Guidance v2.1 Dec 2025, TREx registry data
Finding 04
DHA running two parallel AI tracks with no visible coordination
PEO DHMS (MHS GENESIS ecosystem) and the Health IT Directorate are procuring AI/ML capabilities independently for overlapping use cases. Same capability, two contracts, two evaluation teams. The GENESIS IDIQ provides sole-source access for incumbents. Non-incumbents must pursue Health IT Directorate solicitations for equivalent scope. Understanding which track owns which requirement is the difference between a 6-month and 18-month BD cycle.
Sources: DHA FY2025 budget justification Exhibit O-1, USASpending.gov FY2024 obligation data, PEO DHMS industry day briefing Mar 2025
Finding 05 · Act Now
FY2027 NDAA Section 232 AI audit mandate opens $280-420M procurement window
Section 232 requires independent AI system audits across all DoD components by September 2027. No deployed solution exists at any component today. Estimated procurement value: $280-420M across multiple contract actions. GSA MAS SIN 54151AIAI is the primary anticipated vehicle. First-mover advantage requires capability statements and teaming arrangements in place by June 2026.
Sources: FY2025 NDAA Section 232 text, DoD CIO implementation memo Jan 15 2026, GSA MAS AI/ML SIN obligation data FY2024
Window closes September 2027 · BD action required by June 2026